Around 65 countries will experience a decline of 20 percent on average in their gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050 as shown in a report released at the COP26.
The report was released on Monday at the climate talks in Glasgow stating if temperatures continue to rise up by 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit), the 65 most vulnerable countries will see their GDP drop by 20 percent on average by 2050 and 64 percent by 2100.
The study commissioned by Christian Aid said that even if global temperature increases are capped at 1.5C (2.7F), in line with the ambitious Paris Agreement goal, the same 65 countries would see a GDP hit of 13 percent by 2050 and 33 percent by the end of the ongoing century.
Earth’s average surface temperature to date has increased by 1.1C (2F) in comparison with the levels seen during the late 19th-century.
The research shows that over a third of the world’s countries need help on an urgent basis to develop resilience if their economies are to withstand the blitz of heatwaves, floods, drought, and storms exacerbated by global warming.
Lead author Marina Andrijevic from Humboldt University in Berlin said, “The ability of countries in the Global South to sustainably develop is seriously jeopardized”.
She added, “Policy choices that we make right now are crucial for preventing further damage.”
Out of the top 10 most affected countries, 8 are in Africa, and 2 are in South America.
All 10 face GDP damage of over 70 percent by 2100 following the existing climate policy trajectory, and 40 percent even if global warming is capped at 1.5C.
The nation facing the worst GDP damage is Sudan, which was left reeling in September after heavy rains and flash floods impacted over 300,000 people.
Sudan would see a GDP drop of 32 percent by 2050, and 84 percent by 2100 in comparison to a scenario in which there was no climate change.
The countries covered under the study make up two main negotiating blocs at the United Nations climate talks: the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).
Small island states are more vulnerable to storm surges exacerbated by rising seas.
The report does not take into account adaptation measures, which might potentially alleviate some of the damage.
Up till now, rich governments have made commitments of only modest amounts of funding to aid poor countries adapt to climate impacts.
Director of Nairobi-based climate and energy think-tank Power Shift Africa Mohamed Adow said, “Africa has done the least to cause climate change yet this report shows it will face the most severe consequences. That is deeply unjust”.
