After two decades of the United States’ costly and bloody efforts to support the Afghan government, the Taliban has stunningly retaken control of the country, posing new risks – and opportunities – for neighbouring China.
China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on Monday that China “respects the wishes and choices of the Afghan people”, and hoped the Taliban’s declarations that it would transition the country under an “open, inclusive Islamic government” and ensure the safety of Afghan citizens and foreign missions would be carried out accordingly.
“China expects these statements to be implemented to ensure the situation in Afghanistan achieves a smooth transition, curbs all kinds of terrorist and criminal activities, and allows the Afghan people to be far away from war and to rebuild their beautiful homeland,” the spokeswoman said.
For Beijing, the Taliban’s rapid takeover of the capital Kabul and presidential palace on Monday raises fears that turmoil and instability could spill over into its highly sensitive, western Xinjiang region; particularly that Afghanistan may become a base for terrorists and extremists fighting for the independence for the largely Muslim region of Xinjiang; eventually hurting China’s strategic investments under the sweeping Belt and Road Initiative.
The dramatic collapse of the Afghan government comes with devastating losses for the US – increasingly a strategic rival for China – as its nearly 20-year war ends as it began with Taliban rule and the sight of helicopters evacuating its diplomats in an unmistakable parallel with its withdrawal from Saigon in 1975.
While China had been wary of US presence in Afghanistan, it was also benefiting from the relative stability brought by the US over the past two decades.
Beijing has not explicitly said it will recognise the Taliban as the new leaders of Afghanistan but analysts say it will inevitably continue engaging with the militant group which has described China as a “friend” to Afghanistan.
When asked if Beijing would recognise the Taliban as the legitimate leaders of Afghanistan, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua did not answer directly, saying China has “maintained contact and communication with the Taliban” and that it respected the country‘s sovereignty and its various domestic parties.
“Afghanistan’s Taliban has expressed many times a desire for good relations with China, with an expectation that China will take part in Afghanistan’s rebuilding and development process, and will not allow any forces to use Afghanistan’s soil to harm China,” she said. “We welcome this.”
The Chinese embassy in Afghanistan is continuing to operate as normal, and its ambassador and embassy staff will remain in their posts. Most Chinese citizens in Afghanistan had earlier returned to China, but the ones who remained behind are in close contact with the Chinese embassy.
While China may not be directly involved in the ongoing power transition, Beijing will play an active role in the rebuilding process to secure its interests, observers said.
“China will play a more important role in Afghanistan, but this will have to wait until the security situation is more stable,” Du Youkang, a former diplomat and international affairs researcher at Shanghai’s Fudan University, said.
“The Taliban already has taken control of most of Afghanistan but many of the smaller places and other forces have not been fully sorted out, and the situation is still rapidly changing, so there will still be a process for the entire situation to be stabilised,” He added.
Earlier in July, One of China’s main concerns – raised in a meeting with senior Taliban leaders – was the future of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) which Beijing has blamed for unrest in its Xinjiang region.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi secured a commitment from the Taliban that it would not let any force “use the Afghan territory to engage in acts detrimental to China”.
At the same meeting, in the eastern Chinese city of Tianjin, Wang slammed the US for its “hasty withdrawal” from Afghanistan and said the Taliban was a “pivotal military and political force” that was “expected to play an important role in the country’s peace, reconciliation and reconstruction process”.
Du said the more chaotic the security environment in Afghanistan, the “more space it allows for terrorist groups and organisations to conduct their activities, including accessing channels for weapons procurement”.
He said China would need to maintain a relationship with the Taliban, particularly because the group had promised not to allow terrorist or separatist forces against China to operate from Afghanistan.
“For the Taliban, China is Afghanistan’s largest and most powerful neighbour, and they want to secure Chinese aid and investments because they know they will not be able to stay in power without economic development,” he said.
Du added that, “For China, the Taliban is a political force in Afghanistan that cannot be ignored, whether it is in power or not. You cannot ignore it, so under these circumstances, engaging with the Taliban is better than not engaging with them.”
Hua Liming, a former Chinese ambassador to Iran and expert in China’s relations with the Middle East and Islamic countries, said China’s immediate concerns were the uncertainties created by Afghan asylum seekers heading to China’s borders and the region, as well as the Taliban’s existing relationships with terrorist groups.
“The question is whether the Taliban now is the same Taliban from 20 years ago, when they were in government,” he said. “The group has such deep-rooted and complex ties with extremist and terrorist groups that it is too early to tell how worried China should be.”
While the Taliban had expressed a desire to build good relations with China at the Tianjin meeting, Hua warned that “their attitude and promises can also change”.
But for months, Beijing has been moving to take security precautions over the situation in Afghanistan.
Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang think tank in Beijing, said the Chinese army had reinforced its defences several months ago along the narrow Wakhan Corridor which forms a 70km (43.4 miles) border between China and Afghanistan.
“Beijing is highly concerned about the return of ETIM to Xinjiang once the Taliban controls the whole of Afghanistan due to their former close relations and sharing of some common natures,” he said.
The think tank researcher added that “Beijing predicted today’s crisis several months ago, and started reminding the US in the Alaska talks in March, but it seems like Joe Biden’s administration didn’t take care of China’s role in the Afghanistan issue.”
Even as the US and its allies scrambled to evacuate their staff from Afghanistan, China’s embassy in Kabul signalled on Sunday that it had been in contact with the Taliban and would be staying put in the country.
“The Chinese embassy has requested various factions in Afghanistan to ensure the safety of Chinese nations, Chinese institutions and Chinese interests,” it said in a statement.
“The embassy will take further steps to remind Chinese nationals to closely follow the security situation, increase safety precautions and to refrain from going outside,” the statement added.
Russia’s embassy has also said it had no plans to evacuate.
A Taliban spokesperson said it had assured “all embassies, diplomatic centres, institutions, places and foreign nationals” in Kabul that they would remain safe, as its sweeping and rapid advances on Sunday left the capital city in disarray.
